In Europe and Japan, the population is aging and declining as more couples have fewer children or none at all. In the U.S., fertility rates have risen to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per couple. Why? It’s partly higher fertility by Hispanics and by church-going Americans, but that doesn’t explain the trend entirely, reports the Washington Post.
Although many European countries offer women incentives to have children, such as providing lengthy paid maternity leave, guaranteeing their jobs and subsidizing child care, the efforts have had limited impact.
By contrast, American women have more access to part-time jobs, helpful husbands and conveniences such as prepared foods and weekend and late-night shopping.
While economists are cheering, the environmentalists are mourning the birth of more infant consumers.
Hey, I’m all for the environmentaists breeding (well, not) themselves out of existance.
Of course, as the numbers of enviro-spawn dwindle, they will do their best to indoctrinate others’ children.
If we don’t have children, someone else will - and those children wiill have no love for us.
I have just 2 lovely boys, but I know several families with 4 or more children. The more traditional the parents the more chidren they seem to have. I belong to a catholic homeschool co-op (I’m not catholic) and there are several families with 6 or more children. The socially conservative and religious will inherit the earth. Or, at least, the USA.
The support European governments offer is very expensive. Many of our university-educated European friends regard child rearing as an expensive business. They plan small families, if any, from the start. No one fantasizes about having a large family. In the US, large might start around 5 children; there, large may start around 3 children, and very few choose a “large” family. Child rearing is more economical if you can amortize the cost over 2 or more children, so for a small family, each child is expensive.
I also think that “nanny-state” impulses by governments play a part, as well. Requiring all children to use a booster seat until 12, which Germany requires, makes travel in a small, european car impossible for families who have more than 2 children. The children are probably safer in booster seats, but it makes the jump from 2 children to 3 more imposing. Parking a minivan in Europe is difficult, as the roads are smaller.
Paradoxically, other factors come into play. After a certain age (18?) US parents can kick their kids out of the house, and require them to earn their own living. In Germany, for example, a family is required to support a child who studies at University, even if the student is in his mid-twenties.
All of this has been going on for some time, and we will see a very small bit of what is to come in only a few years.
In 2010, the US will have another census, and will use the results to reapportion the House of Representatives, and by extention, the Electoral College. Due to demographic shifts (some, no doubt, brought on by migration, but many heavily associated with differential birth rates), it is estimated that the ‘Red States’ will pick up about 16 seats overall, just a bit fewer than the state of Ohio. In a practical sense this means that the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections are NOT likely to be the razor thin affairs we have seen in 2000 and 2004 (and probably will see in 2008), but will rather be fairly substantive wins for the red state candidate.
Demographics matter…
Scott,
Most of those births in the red states are hispanic births. Look at how Virginia and Arizona are no longer red states and the future looks very bad for the Republican Party. The Democrats know that in the long run, changing demographics benefit them and not the Republicans. Demographic changes alone are enough to eliminate the Republicans as a national party. Look at California,and New England. The Republicans are irrelevant to politics in those states with no prospects of a comeback in the future.
There will soon be a presidential election where the Democrats will have enough electoral votes wrapped up that the Republican candidates will have no chance of winning.
I’m always confused about the “mystery” of lower European/Asian birth rates. Pretty much every species breeds itself up to the limit that it’s environment can sustain. By accident of geography, the USA still has huge amounts of arable land suitable for people. Pretty much everything else follows from that. (What would be remarkable is if American birth rates maintained that level when the population of the USA was, say, 1.5 billion.)
Anyone who’s ever played the computer game Civilization can tell you what happens if one player gets a large continent to themselves.