Joanne Jacobs

States have been inflating graduation rates in their No Child Left Behind reports. From the New York Times:

JACKSON, Miss. — When it comes to high school graduation rates, Mississippi keeps two sets of books.

One team of statisticians working at the state education headquarters here recently calculated the official graduation rate at a respectable 87 percent, which Mississippi reported to Washington. But in another office piled with computer printouts, a second team of number crunchers came up with a different rate: a more sobering 63 percent.

Nine states overstated their graduation rates by 10 to 22 percentage points, estimated the Education Department in 2005. About 71 percent of ninth graders will graduate four years later, researchers estimate. That’s about 15 percent below the federal estimate, which is based on dubious state data.

California, for example, sends to Washington an official graduation rate of 83 percent but reports an estimated 67 percent on a state Web site.

In Jackson, Mississsippi, where only 56 percent of public students earn a high school diploma, the graduation rate is reported as 81 percent.

At Murrah High School, one of eight here, the official graduation rate is 99 percent, even though yearbooks show that half of Murrah’s freshmen disappear before becoming seniors. Even Murrah’s principal, Roy Brookshire, expressed surprise.

“I can’t explain how they figured that, truly I can’t,” Mr. Brookshire said.

In December 2005, all 50 governors agreed to standardize the way graduation rates are calculated. Fifteen states now use the standard formula: North Carolina went from a reported 95 percent graduation rate to 68 percent.

Education Secretary Margaret Spellings is threatening to require all states to use the formula. But NCLB lets states set very low targets for improving graduation rates. Nevada’s goal is to graduate 50 percent of students; California plans to take 500 years to meet its target.